Blog
Notes and updates on statistics, infectious disease modeling, and other miscellaneous topics.
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On the use of command line tools
What always amazes me is that years ago when memory was scarce and computational power was expensive, tools were developed to parse and manipulate data that fit these restrictions. Among...
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Defining a Project Workflow
A consistent workflow is very powerful for several key reasons: Removes the mental burden of structuring a project Makes sharing easier by establishing a common understanding of what does what...
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Finding the Needle in the Haystack
One of the challenges in any kind of prediction problem is understand the impact of a) not identifying the target and b) the impact of falsely indentifying the target. To...
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State Space Models for Poll Prediction
I have always been interested in state space modeling. It is really interesting to see how this modeling strategy works in the realm of opinion polling. Luckily I stumbled across...
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Re-districting in Winston-Salem
There was a recent bill introduced in the North Carolina General Assembly to reorganise the city counsel by two Republican state members of the General Assembly. The status quo is...
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Omitted Variable Bias
One important concept to discuss is that of omited variable bias. This occurs when you have endogenous predictors that you do not adequately control for in your analysis. As with...
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MRP Redux
I recently got a question about using MRP and I thought it would be worthwhile to share some of the additional explanation of using this approach with a simulated data...
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Speeding Things Up with Rcpp
I worked on something that started in R and then I wanted to speed it up. MCMC is generally a slow process in base R because it can’t be parallelised...
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Latex in ggplot2
This is a useful package to use latex notation in { }. I saw this on twitter and wish I had written down the originator for proper citation but I...
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MRP using brms
This blogpost is a reproduction of this . Multi-level regression with post-stratification (MRP) is one of the more powerful predictive strategies for opinion polling and election forecasting. It combines the...