Blog
Notes and updates on statistics, infectious disease modeling, and other miscellaneous topics.
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How Discerning is the Technical Challenge in GBBO?
My wife and I love to watch the Great British Bake Off on Netflix. The competition is for the most part collegial in general and all around feel good television,...
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Spike
I read Jeremy Farrar's Spike over the weekend. I don't have anything insightful to say about it. On this side of the pond, the United Kingdom seemed like it had...
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Comparing Mortality Rates is Hard
A Simple Question Say you get a simple question like, how does the mortality rate from COVID-19 for our county (if you live in the United States and not Louisiana)...
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The Myth of Luck and the Lone Scientist
We Got Lucky This post was spurred by the following tweet by Eric Topol and an associated response. Did we get lucky with great vaccines? Some would say yes, we...
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Time to Vaccinate
This post is completely inspired by @mjskay ’s very interesting analysis/ critique of a New York Times linear extrapolation of when the United States would reach the critical proportion for...
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Skin in the Game
Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a rather polarizing figure, but one point he makes over and over again is that it is better to trust someone who has “skin in the...
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ShinyProxy Serving Websites
Preview Image from shinyproxy.io One of the neat things about ShinyProxy is that it allows you to package your Shiny applications into Docker containers and then serve them up via...
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Negative Binomial Distribution and Epidemics
This is partially just for me to remember how to parameterise a Negative Binomial distribution . Typically, the Negative Binomial is used for the number of Bernoulli trials before the...
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Bayesian SIR
library(cmdstanr) library(magrittr) library(ggplot2) library(data.table) library(deSolve) Compartment models are commonly used in epidemiology to model epidemics. Compartmental model are composed of differential equations and captured some “knowns” regarding disease transmission. Because...
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Optimisation with Stan
In this post I just wanted to play around using the ability to optimize functions in Stan. I know that there are other solvers available, but I just wanted to...